McGavick-Cantwell Senate Race

I attended a GOP dinner the other night in which candidate for U.S. Senate Mike McGavick was the featured speaker. Very impressive individual. Charismatic, articulate, and seemingly genuine. He spoke without a prompt, notes, or even a podium; smoothly delivering his remarks from start to finish.

Pitted side by side with Sen. Maria Cantwell he will likely shine. She is nowhere near the talented speaker nor public figure Mr. McGavick is. Sen. Cantwell looks uncomfortable and small when delivering public comments. Mr. McGavick looks the part of a U.S. senator, which is a large part of the equation in getting elected to the U.S. Senate. Do not expect the Cantwell campaign to give Mr. McGavick more than one debate in the fall.

With that said, Mr. McGavick still faces a rough road, for various reasons. He is largely unknown within the state. This is a Democratic state where Republicans have won virtually nothing of late. Moreover, there is a perceived trend towards Democrats this election cycle, fueled by President Bush’s soft approval ratings and scandal-plagued Republicans in congress.

To overcome this Mr. McGavick will need to focus on building his public profile and name recognition. He will need to focus on the issues voters care about—the war on terror, the economy, etc. The public is not as concerned with the so called "Culture of Corruption" in congress as Democrats think they are; and they will be disappointed if their candidates such as Sen. Cantwell make this their main campaign issue. More than anything, Americans are concerned with national security and their personal safety—Mr McGavick would be wise to structure his message accordingly.

Mr. McGavick is a strong candidate and would make a strong senator in my view. Sen. Cantwell is not. She has had an undistinguished record of accomplishment so far and appears frail and unassertive in public. On a level playing field with all things equal Mr. McGavick would undoubtedly defeat Sen. Cantwell handily.

The playing field is not level however and all is not equal. Sen. Cantwell enjoys the advantages of incumbency and party affiliation. Mr. McGavick is still a largely unknown entity within the state and needs to sufficiently introduce himself to the voters before he can legitimately and substantively challenge the senator on the issues.

Accomplishing this as well as overcoming a Democrats’ natural advantage in a Democratic-leaning state this time around may be a task too tough to ask for. Mike McGavick is a strong candidate however and a strong campaign will leave him in a strong position for another Senate run in the future—as Dino Rossi’s strong but ultimately unsuccessful gubernatorial run of 2004 has left him in a strong position to run again in 2008.