'08 Presidential Race

Rasmussen released some numbers on two hypothetical match-ups for the '08 presidential race today, one pitting Arizona Senator John McCain against New York Senator Hillary Clinton, the other a matchup between former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. Clinton. In the McCain-Clinton matchup McCain tops Clinton 45-38%, while in the Giuliani-Clinton face off Giuliani leads by the statistically insignificant margin of 42-40%. These are not the numbers from this poll that strike me however, for at this early juncture I could really care less what the horse-race numbers say.

The most striking numbers from this poll were the favorable-unfavorable numbers of the two Republican candidates. While 68% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani, just 51% do so of Sen. McCain. Today's Republican party is fairly conservative, and the fact that they approve of a social liberal over a conservative by such a wide margin is truly astounding. While I don't expect Giuliani's high favorability to remain this high should he officially jump into the race, at which point the scrutiny on his social liberalness will skyrocket, McCain's low favorability is very troubling to someone trying to gain the party's nomination.

McCain's maverick tendencies and his perceived lack of support for the president up until last year's presidential campaign have obviously left many of the party's rank and file disenchanted. I have always considered his chance of getting the party's '08 nomination a long shot, but he will never get close to receiving it if he doesn't improve his favorability among the party. Should he get the nomination he will be a very formidable general election candidate, and my guess is that he would comfortably defeat any Democrat he may run against, Sen. Clinton included. But to get to the general election he must first win the nomination, and there isn't a chance he will accomplish this if only half of the party views him in a favorable light.

These numbers put in bold letters the need for Sen. McCain to get out and mend some fences within the party. He may be the left's favorite Republican, but he has a long ways to go before he becomes the Republican Party's favorite Republican.