"The house we hope to build is not for my generation but for yours. It is your future that matters. And I hope that when you are my age, you will be able to say as I have been able to say: We lived in freedom. We lived lives that were a statement, not an apology."


Sunday, November 15, 2009

Horse Before the Cart, Mr. President

As part of its enduring attempt to explain the absurd amount of time being taken by the president to decide on Gen. McChrystal's request, the administration has expressed uncertainty over whether the Karzai government "can reform itself enough to make success feasible."

Framing consideration in this manner stands the reality of the issue on its head. Military success in Afghanistan does not depend upon the viability of the country's government, the viability of the country's government depends upon military success.

For evidence of this one can point directly to the surge in Iraq. If the Bush administration had approached the issue in the same way the Obama administration has, America would have never sent 20,000 more American soldiers there and we would have lost a war. No serious person can deny that (though many will never admit it). The Maliki government was a cesspool of sectarian incompetence that had little will or ability to challenge Shiite militias or to encourage Sunni participation in the country's political process.

But instead of using this as a reason not to increase America's national investment in Iraq, the president understood that for any semblance of political progress to be achieved Iraq had to be militarily pacified first. Only with physical security could the civil society necessary for real democratic government develop.

President Bush was right. The surge convinced Sunnis that America was there to stay and thus encouraged them to assist us in defeating al Qaeda, creating the Anbar Awakening. Additionally, with al Qaeda eliminated there was no more justification for the Shiite militias and thus more pressure was exerted on the Maliki government to crack down on them, which they belatedly did. Ever since we have seen slow but steady political progress, the most recent example being passage of an elections bill by the Iraqi parliament.

The lesson from Iraq is clear: military success is the precondition for political success.

As much as they may be loathe to, the Obama administration needs to do as its predecessor did and grant the requested troop levels necessary for military and political success in Afghanistan, and they need to do so now while success is still possible.

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