Elections are not referendums: voters cannot simply vote yes or no on a candidate or a party. If elections were referendums the Democrats would have control of congress within their grasp. Republicans and their deficiencies would be solely scrutinized by voters without due regard towards the Democrats and theirs. A yes or no referendum on congressional Republicans, in the current environment, is an election Republicans lose.
Unfortunately for Democrats, elections are a choice between two alternatives. The greatest obstacle standing between Democrats and control of congress is that they are the alternative to the Republicans. As much as voters may be disenchanted with Republicans, they glance towards the other side of the aisle and see something equally odious. Yes Republicans spend too much, are too often too comfortable in their seat of power, have not accomplished the big items they promised, and lack focus and discipline. But the Democrats are mindlessly obstructionist, petty and churlish, and stand for and promise nothing but the failed liberal policies of the past.
Granted, Democrats are likely to gain a seat or two in both houses in November. As the party in the majority, voter disillusion will grate heavier upon Republicans than Democrats.
The Democrats transparent shortcomings likely preclude them from taking control of congress however. If anything, voters in the middle are likely to glance at both choices and stay home on election day. A low-turnout election equals a virtual perpetuation of the status quo, not a new Democratic majority.
The special election in California-50 this week corroborates this. The vast majority of those who turned out to vote were members of either the Republican or Democratic Party. Independents constituted a very minimal fraction of the vote and neither of the two candidates ended up receiving a majority.* The Republican candidate, Bill Bilbray, was able to achieve a minimal victory in a reliably Republican district. He received less of the vote share than President Bush won in that district in ‘04 but still received enough of the vote to win.
This is a pattern we could see throughout the country in November. Dissatisfaction with Republicans might earn the Democrats a few more points than they normally would receive, but minimal independent turnout will prevent these nominal gains from ever becoming substantial enough to take control of the House or Senate, or both. To garner a wave large enough to depose the Republican majority, Democrats would need their own base and independents to turn out against the Republicans Party.
An energized Democratic base with a heavy turnout is unlikely to suffice. As disheartened as Republicans may be with their own party, visions of Denny Hastert turning over the gavel to Nancy Pelosi January 3, 2007 are likely to nullify the vote-depressing effect this sentiment entails.
I am just as disappointed in congressional Republicans as the next voter. If the choice were between the current crop of Republicans in congress and a party who would spend responsibly, stay the course in Iraq, reform entitlements, and pass comprehensive immigration reform, I would chose the latter. But that is not the choice. That a Democratic congress is the only alternative to the current Republican one serves as the largest motivation insuring my enthusiastic support for Republicans this year. I suspect most of my fellow Republicans feel the same.
If the current quality of the choices voters face remains the same, most independents in the middle are likely to just stay home election day, leaving rank-and-file Democrats disgusted by Republican rule to square off against rank-and-file Republicans terrified at the thought of Democratic rule in a battle of which party can turn out more of their faithful. Such an environment may be conducive to Democratic gains, but not control of congress.
* Although added together the total vote share from Mr. Bilbray and a conservative independent in the race, William Griffith, who ran on a tighter border security platform, constituted a majority of the vote at 53%.
No comments:
Post a Comment