That Sen. McCain is a virtual lock to win the general election in ‘08 should he indeed run is almost beyond dispute, no matter who the Democratic nominee might be. Sen. McCain appeals to people from all sides of the aisle, and if public perception of the U.S. effort in Iraq continues to remain negative (perception and reality are two different entities in this case) Sen. McCain would be the ideal candidate.
Ross Douthat aptly points out that "when Americans sour on a military conflict, they don’t usually elect outspoken doves—they elect politicians with hawkish credentials who insist they’ll bring the war to a successful conclusion." Sen. McCain fits this mold perfectly—his criticism of the post-war management yet steadfast support of the general war effort gives him this. More on this later.
To ever reach the general election however Sen. McCain will need to earn the support of his own party. Though he is loved by those on the left and center, the right views him tepidly. He has frustrated conservatives and Republicans in the past for a host of reasons. He co-sponsored the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform bill in 2002, a bill which raised serious First Amendment Concerns. His leadership in the "Gang of Fourteen" deal last spring angered many conservatives anxious to end senate filibusters of President Bush's judicial nominees.
To be fair, the compromise has led to the up-or-down vote and eventual confirmation of many qualified jurists. Nominees such as Priscilla Owen, Janice Rodgers Brown, and William Pryor, having been previously filibustered, now sit on the bench as a result of the compromise.
To be the nominee in ‘08 Sen. McCain will need Republican primary voters to vote strategically. If Republicans fear the Democratic nominee will win the general election Sen. McCain’s stock will soar. The only question is if Republicans will care more about philosophical and ideological purity or winning.
Sen. McCain’s main objective from this point forward, if he is indeed running, is to diminish as much as possible this dilemma. In other words, the less Republicans feel like they are compromising philosophical values for political strategy if and when they cast their vote for Sen. McCain the better. He needs conservatives to be comfortable with him, to view him as more than just the candidate of last resort, as one of them.
If the senator fails to become this he will be a servant of circumstance, his fate resting in areas beyond his control. He will need several dominos to fall into place. The country would have to be dissatisfied with Republicans and at least hospitable to Democrats(the populace is dissatisfied with both parties right now). The GOP field will have to be weak, or perceived to be, and one candidate will have to be steam-rolling through the Democratic primaries, one deemed unstoppable by national Republicans. The national mood will have to be dour and the electoral field conducive to a Democratic victory—i.e. a sluggish economy, trouble in Iraq, Bush fatigue, etc.
The dominos may very well fall into place perfectly like this, but they just as easily may not. Basing one’s presidential aspirations on a series of if’s is certainly not the way to go.
I’m sure Sen. McCain understands this. Just last week he told AP that the Republican party must highlight "progress in Iraq" as well as develop a "comprehensive energy package" and "stop this profligate spending"---words conservatives and Republicans love to hear.
National Republicans and conservatives are frustrated with Washington Republicans as much as the broader American public, especially over shameless federal spending. Come ‘08 they will be looking for the candidate who will promise fiscal discipline and victory in Iraq, as well as nominate constitutionalists to the bench and shore up the Mexican border.
To gain Republicans’ confidence and their nomination though will require much more than paid lip service on these issues. Sen. McCain’s record in the senate will count just as much as his stump speech rhetoric.
On the issue of fiscal responsibility Sen. McCain does have some credibility. He supported a recent amendment sponsored by Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma that would have transferred federal funds from the "Bridge to Nowhere" in Alaska to more important projects along the Gulf Coast. In addition, Sen. McCain has received an 88% rating from the Council for Citizens Against Government Waste.
His obstinance on cutting taxes could prove to be a sticking point however. He has chastised the president and Republicans for cutting taxes in times of war, an unpopular position within a pro-tax cut, pro-growth party. Whether or not he plans to cut taxes or even keep them at current levels is a question that is sure to pop up often on the primary campaign trail.
No one can question Sen. McCain's determination and willingness to stay in Iraq for as long as necessary. He has criticized some of the administration’s post-war management it is true, but his support for the general effort has never wavered and cannot be questioned:
"America's first goal in Iraq is not to withdraw troops, but to win the war. All other policy decisions we make should support, and be subordinate to, the successful completion of our mission. Morality, national security and the honor our fallen deserve all compel us to see our mission in Iraq through to victory."Critiquing decisions made and strategy employed in Iraq’s post-war management is an entirely legitimate and healthy exercise. I highly doubt conservatives would find Sen. McCain’s call for more troops over there objectionable anyway.
Sen. McCain’s judicial philosophy and the type of judge he would look for if he were president is unclear. For obvious reasons it is impossible to tell what kind of judge he would nominate until he is actually in a position to do so. This issue too will pop up frequently throughout the primaries.
Another liability for the senator may be his border proposal. Republicans are demanding stricter security along the U.S.-Mexican border, the senator’s proposal focuses more on dealing with illegal aliens already in the country as opposed to preventing more from entering. I endorsed the senator’s idea, but concerns that it doesn’t adequately address border security are legitimate.
Whether Sen. McCain is able to overcome this liability and others come Iowa and New Hampshire is the million dollar question. He would be a strong and almost unbeatable general election candidate—any Democrat would be hard-pressed to overcome his across-the-aisle appeal and sheer integrity.
Getting his fellow Republicans to give him their nomination will be the test. Due to growing public concern over Iraq and perceived Republican corruption in congress many analysts believe Sen. McCain’s stock is rising among conservatives and Republicans. Maybe, maybe not. If so, and it is these reasons which are motivating a change of heart, than it is a result of the strategic motivations I highlighted earlier. He is only the pragmatic political choice, not the one whom inspires or captures the imaginations of Republicans.
Time will tell if he can change this.
Extra Hat Tip: Tom Bevan
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