The Emerging GOP Generation?

From the early 1930's all the way through the 1970's the Democratic Party dominated American politics. During that period Republicans held the White House just sixteen of the forty years. Democrats held huge majorities in both houses of congress and a majority of state legislatures. At the height of power they held nearly forty of the nation's fifty governor's mansions. Simply put, the Democrats owned the halls of government and every thing that came out of them.

But all that began to change in 1980 when a wise and optimistic man named Ronald Reagan rode a grassroots rebellion straight to the White House. Americans were simply beginning to grow tired of the gorilla that had become government and the deterioration of their traditional culture. No longer did the Democratic Party stand for helping the common man at home while advancing liberty and freedom abroad. The downfall of the Democrats left a void that Republicans were quick to fill. In the twenty-five years since than Republicans have steadily rose to become America's majority party ( you can read one of my earlier posts on how we got from then to now here).

However new numbers seem to be suggesting that the GOP might be moving into that dominant status the Democrats enjoyed for so long. Whereas Democrats used to enjoy a two-to-one party affiliation advantage, that number was tied between the two parties at 37% in the last election. This parity is not only a move up from thirty years ago, but just eight years ago, for Democrats enjoyed an affiliation advantage in both the '96 and '00 elections. If we continue in the same direction Republicans will soon transcend the Democrats in party ID, presumably as early as '06 or '08.

If you look at a different set of numbers however, you could argue that the GOP has already surpassed the Democratic Party. As Alexander K. McClure points out, President Bush won 250 House Districts and 31 states in the last election (or 62 Senators). Furthermore, in a recent column Robert Novak cites recent projections that show red states are likely to gain 6 electoral votes following the 2010 census, with Texas and Florida each gaining three. This number coincides with the fact that President Bush won ninety-six of the country's hundred fastest growing counties. Americans are simply migrating to Republican states where friendlier business climates and greater prosperity exist, while those in Blue America wallow in stagnation caused by over regulation and low birth rates.

To sum up, if we continue down the same path we have been going for the last twenty-five years, we will soon be entering a new generation of GOP dominance, very similar to New Deal generation that dominated for so long in the 1900's. This reiterates once again the necessity for Democrats to compete in middle America, where they have steadily lost ground. This also brings up the question whether Howard Dean is really the right man to be leading the party, for we live in a center-right nation and I don't think someone on the far left is going to help stop the bleeding, he'll only increase it.

Hat Tip: Polipundit