The Senate Compromise And It's '08 Ramifications

Much of the chatter and analysis over the recent deal in the Senate hasn't regarded it's ramifications on either the Senate itself or the federal judiciary, but rather the deal's political effects on the '08 presidential race. Conventional opinion has been that the deal has hurt the prospects of Arizona Sen. John McCain and Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist, while it has helped those of Virginia Sen. George Allen. As the punditry has it, Sen. McCain's leadership in brokering this deal has only added to his negative, maverick perception within the party, while Sen. Frist's inability to keep the troops in line has reflected poorly on his leadership skills. In Sen. Allen's case, the prevailing opinion is that his steadfast support of giving nominees an up or down vote and his conservative principles throughout the whole debate will help endear him to the party's conservative base three and a half years from now.

For the record I tend to agree with the conventional wisdom, though I do believe that the negative effects this compromise will have on the presidential aspirations of Sen. McCain and Sen. Frist have been a bit exaggerated. In my view it's a long shot that anyone of these senators will receive the nomination, if for nothing else than the fact that they are senators, who, with the exception of two cases in American history, don't get elected president. I do think Sen. Allen might have a shot, mainly due to his conservative record and sunny personality and demeanor, which has been compared to Ronald Reagan once or twice. However, though I wouldn't write off anyone of these guys, I believe both Sen. McCain and Sen. Frist face an especially long road in getting to the White House.

Let me first begin with Sen. McCain. Though many believe that his role in the whole ordeal will severely hamper his efforts to win over conservatives in the primaries, I have believed from the start that his chances of winning the nomination are slim, regardless of his recent efforts. Sen. McCain has never been all that popular with the base, and trying to reverse the maverick perception that he earned during the 2000 primaries was always going to be tough. Sen. McCain's best hope come Iowa and New Hampshire will be that the party will look at him as the strongest candidate to go against Sen. Clinton in the general election, and then base their votes on that. I wouldn't discount this possibility either, for the Republican rank and file's strong distaste for Sen. Clinton could easily motivate them to take that kind of strategic voting approach(Peter Brown outlines the GOP's history of it).

In regards to Sen. Frist, I have never thought that he stood much of a chance in the primary race either, though for different reasons. His credentials as majority leader have been rather unimpressive, and though he is a thoughtful, intelligent man his personality is by no means commanding and he may lack the capacity to inspire and excite his base. His adherence to conservative causes has been admirable, but I can easily see him getting lost in the fold in what looks to be, at least initially, a crowded Republican field.

No, come '08 I believe that the party will nominate a governor, for governors make the best presidential candidates, with three of our four most recent presidents having served in that role. Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee are just a few of the Republican governors that have been mentioned, and in the time between now and the '08 primary race I'm sure I'll have more than a thing or two to say about each. Regardless of who the party chooses as it's nominee however, I am sure he (or she) will be an excellent candidate and will make a great president.

UPDATE ( 10:22 A.M. 5/28/05): Rasmussen Reports has some very interesting numbers on public reaction to the filibuster compromise.