RE: 'McMentum vs Huckmentum'

Mark Steyn:

A McCain victory in SC has to be good news for Giuliani because the narrative becomes "Stop McCain!" and Rudy's best poised to do that - not just because his numbers in Florida haven't yet collapsed to the same undetectable levels as they have everywhere else, but because Huck and Mitt and Fred will be fairly proven failures at the "Stop McCain" game. So, if stopping him's your priority, then Rudy's the one-stop shop after everyone's stopped shopping around. He'll be the last ABM (Anyone-But-McCain) in with a shot.

A Huck victory in SC, by contrast, keeps the other fellows alive, which makes it more likely that the attrition in Rudy numbers will continue.

But Mark's right. If Rudy wins in Florida, those of us who said he can't recover from sitting out the first month will have to acknowledge that he's a towering genius who cannily foresaw that leaving the early states to be squabbled over by weak and divisive candidates would render their victories irrelevant and leave him to stroll on in the Second Act and take the throne as king on a field of corpses.*

(*I assume there's an internal memo somewhere that lays it out like that.)



My E-Mailed Response:

Mr. Steyn:

Just read your 'McMentum vs. Huckmentum' post on the Corner and I say I have to disagree totally with your assertion that Mayor Giuliani will be the one conservatives might coalesce around to stop Sen. McCain in Florida should he win this evening in South Carolina. I don't find any logic in Mayor Giuliani being that person. Presumably those who wish to stop Sen. McCain do so because of his inconsistent or maverick Conservatism. Why then would they coalesce around Mayor Giuliani, whose conservatism is also, to put it kindly, inconsistent?

No I believe that it is the most viable candidate of traditional conservative dispositions who conservatives would flock to to beat Sen. McCain, probably Gov. Romney (though his conservatism by no means has not been put into question during this campaign).