New polling numbers were released by Strategic Vision yesterday on the state of public opinion here in Washington State. In regards to the upcoming Senate race in ‘06, Sen. Maria Cantwell has a very soft 47% approval rating. Further, if the election were held today, Sen. Cantwell would defeat SAFECO CEO Mike McGavick, the only Republican to announce an interest in the race so far, 46-38%.
That the senator is ahead by only eight points against a virtual unknown at this early juncture, and is under fifty percent in both approval and in the horse-race numbers, should be of a concern to her. If McGavick does officially enter the race, and barring any significant primary challenge builds some name recognition and credibility with state voters, he will be able to put some pressure on the senator and her underwhelming first term record. Like Sen. Cantwell in 2000, McGavick is wealthy enough to personally fund his campaign as well.
None of this means that we should be writing Sen. Cantwell’s obituary quite yet though, for she is still an incumbent Democratic senator in a reliably left-of-center state. Resentment against the Democrats does exist over last year’s gubernatorial election, but I anticipate that being more of a problem for Governor Gregoire in ‘08 than Sen. Cantwell in ‘06. If I had to, I’d still put money on Sen. Cantwell winning reelection with around fifty percent of the vote. She is the undisputed favorite and it is going to take a heck of an effort by McGavick and state Republicans to unseat her.
Hat Tip: Stefan Sharkansky, Alexander K. McClure
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